New Delhi, June 24: The developing El Niño phenomenon could significantly affect India’s marine ecosystem, reduce fish catch in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and increase the risk of coral bleaching and marine heat waves over the coming months, according to the first specialised El Niño bulletin issued by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS).
The warning assumes significance for coastal communities, fisheries and maritime sectors that depend on the health and productivity of marine ecosystems. The bulletin indicates that the ongoing El Niño event is continuing to strengthen and is expected to reach its peak during the winter season between November 2026 and January 2027.
INCOIS has begun issuing dedicated El Niño bulletins to assess and communicate the possible impacts of the climate phenomenon on maritime activities and coastal ecosystems. The first bulletin was released by Konda Vishweshwar Reddy, Member of Parliament from Chevella, Telangana.
According to the bulletin, sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean are expected to remain above normal levels until April or May 2027. The prolonged warming is likely to place marine ecosystems in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal under thermal stress, particularly during the period from March to May 2027.
The agency warned that elevated ocean temperatures could increase incidents of coral reef bleaching and intensify marine heat waves. Such environmental changes may adversely affect fish populations, particularly commercially important species such as sardines and mackerel.
The bulletin noted that fish stocks may migrate to more suitable habitats as ocean conditions change, potentially reducing fish availability in traditional fishing grounds. It also indicated that recruitment levels could decline, affecting overall fish production. In addition, changing marine conditions may prevent fish from reaching their normal growth size, creating further challenges for the fisheries sector.
INCOIS also projected rough sea conditions in the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season, raising concerns about coastal erosion and flooding along India’s eastern coastline. Such conditions could affect fishing operations, coastal infrastructure and vulnerable shoreline communities.
In contrast, the Arabian Sea and the western coast of India are expected to experience comparatively calmer sea conditions than usual during the same period. According to the bulletin, this could provide a larger operational window for several maritime sectors and reduce the likelihood of coastal erosion and inundation along the west coast during the ongoing monsoon.
The advisory highlights the growing influence of climate variability on marine resources, coastal ecosystems and economic activities dependent on the sea. Fisheries, which support millions of livelihoods across India’s coastline, remain particularly vulnerable to shifts in ocean temperatures and changing marine habitats.
INCOIS has advised maritime operators, fishermen and other stakeholders to closely monitor alerts, warnings and advisories issued by the agency. The organisation has also announced that the next specialised El Niño bulletin will be released in the second week of July 2026 as authorities continue to track the evolving climate event and its impact on India’s maritime environment.
