April 30, 2025
In the wake of the devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, India and Pakistan find themselves in a rapidly escalating diplomatic and military standoff. The attack, attributed by Indian authorities to the Resistance Front, an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has led to a series of retaliatory measures, significantly straining bilateral relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Central to this response is today’s meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), often referred to as the “Super Cabinet.” This gathering is not just a routine meeting but a pivotal juncture in shaping India’s strategic, diplomatic, and internal security responses to the escalating tensions with Pakistan.
The CCPA, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is the highest decision-making body in the Indian government concerning political and economic affairs. Its role becomes especially critical during national crises, where swift and cohesive action is paramount. Following the Pahalgam attack, the CCPA’s deliberations are expected to influence India’s stance on several fronts:
- Diplomatic Relations: With India already suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading diplomatic ties, the CCPA may consider further measures to isolate Pakistan on the international stage.
- Military Posturing: Given the heightened tensions and reports of cross-border skirmishes, the committee’s decisions could impact India’s military readiness and rules of engagement along the Line of Control.
- Internal Security: The CCPA’s guidance will be crucial in addressing internal security concerns, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, where the attack has reignited fears of unrest.
The urgency of the CCPA meeting is underscored by several developments:
- Pakistan’s Warning: Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar has claimed that India may launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, citing credible intelligence. This assertion adds pressure on Indian leadership to clarify its position and intentions.
- International Concerns: The United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations have expressed concern over the escalating situation, urging both nations to exercise restraint. The CCPA’s decisions will likely consider these international perspectives to balance assertiveness with diplomatic prudence.
- Economic Implications: The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and closure of trade routes have significant economic ramifications. The CCPA must weigh the economic costs of prolonged tensions against the need for a firm response to terrorism.
While the exact agenda of the CCPA meeting remains confidential, several potential outcomes are anticipated:
- Enhanced Counter-Terrorism Measures: The committee may approve increased funding and resources for counter-terrorism operations, both domestically and in coordination with international partners.
- Strategic Communication: Crafting a coherent narrative to counter Pakistan’s denials and to garner international support will be essential. The CCPA might strategize on diplomatic outreach and media engagement.
- Policy Revisions: In light of the attack, there may be discussions on revising existing policies related to border security, intelligence sharing, and emergency response protocols.
Today’s CCPA meeting is more than a bureaucratic formality; it is a critical step in defining India’s response to one of the most severe security challenges in recent years. The decisions made will not only influence immediate actions but also set the tone for India’s long-term strategy in dealing with cross-border terrorism and its complex relationship with Pakistan. As the nation awaits the outcomes, the gravity of the situation underscores the importance of decisive and strategic leadership.
In a decisive move, India also announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a long-standing agreement governing water-sharing between the two countries. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that the treaty would remain in abeyance until Pakistan ceases its support for cross-border terrorism.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited the attack site to assess the situation and coordinate the security response. The Indian Army also granted limited clearance for the operation of its grounded HAL Dhruv helicopters for counterterrorism operations in the region.
Pakistan vehemently denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack, labeling India’s accusations as baseless. In retaliation to India’s measures, Pakistan:
- Suspended the 1972 Shimla Agreement, which emphasized peaceful resolution of disputes.
- Closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and halted all trade with India.
- Expelled Indian diplomats and instructed Indian military advisers to leave the country.
- Suspended visas for Indian nationals.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry expressed condolences to the victims’ families but warned that any action affecting water resources would be considered an act of war. The Pakistani government also cautioned against any military aggression, stating it would respond decisively to any threats to its sovereignty.
Tensions have spilled over into military posturing, with both nations increasing their readiness along the Line of Control (LoC). Reports indicate that cross-border exchanges of fire have intensified, violating the existing ceasefire agreement. India has accused Pakistan of supporting militant groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir, while Pakistan maintains that it only offers diplomatic support to Kashmiri self-determination.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claimed that credible intelligence suggests India may launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours. In response, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif emphasized that while Pakistan does not seek conflict, it is prepared to defend itself, including the potential use of nuclear weapons if its survival is threatened.
The Pahalgam attack has had significant economic repercussions, particularly on Kashmir’s tourism sector, which had been recovering post-COVID-19. The region’s tourism industry, contributing around 7% to its GDP and employing approximately 200,000 people, faces a severe setback.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has raised concerns in Pakistan, especially among farmers who rely heavily on the Indus River system for agriculture and hydropower. The potential withholding of water or data by India could lead to devastating floods or droughts in Pakistan, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
The international community has expressed deep concern over the escalating tensions. The United Nations, the United States, and the United Kingdom have urged both countries to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation. The U.S. State Department announced plans for discussions between its chief diplomat and the foreign ministers of both India and Pakistan to de-escalate the situation.
The Pahalgam terror attack has reignited long standing hostilities between India and Pakistan, leading to a series of retaliatory measures and heightened military readiness. As both nations navigate this crisis, the international community watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution to prevent further destabilization in the region.
