Intelligence agencies have issued warnings of a potential surge in fake currency circulation in India as multiple state elections approach in 2026. Authorities have cautioned that organised networks could exploit election-related security deployments to move counterfeit currency.
The Dawood Syndicate, operating from Pakistan, is reported to have increased production of fake notes. These notes are being routed through Bangladesh and Nepal, prompting heightened vigilance along border regions.
Officials have highlighted Malda district in West Bengal as a key landing point for counterfeit currency entering India from Bangladesh. Intelligence Bureau sources noted that handlers in Malda are preparing to receive a significant consignment. Another official flagged the Nepal border as an additional entry route for the syndicate, which aims to take advantage of security focus on election duties.
Authorities stressed that interception at the border is critical, as detecting counterfeit currency after it enters domestic circulation is extremely challenging. Forensic assessments reveal the notes are of very high quality, printed on advanced machinery with near-perfect watermark formulations, suggesting access to state-grade equipment.
Reports indicate that consignments worth several crores of rupees have already moved into Bangladesh, largely via maritime routes. Agencies attribute the ease of sea transport to recent policy shifts in Dhaka, which have reduced checks for consignments arriving from Pakistan. Intelligence officials also suspect these routes may have been used to move arms and ammunition alongside counterfeit notes.
Once smuggled into India, the fake currency is expected to be circulated mainly in states holding elections, including Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, with polling scheduled between March and May 2026. Officials warn that high election security deployment could provide cover for the syndicate’s activities.
Consignments arriving from Nepal are anticipated to move to Bihar, while those entering from Bangladesh are likely to be routed through Malda before distribution across other states. Surveillance has been intensified in Malda and adjacent areas, where authorities expect the largest shipments to land.
Agencies reiterated that effective monitoring at the border is essential to prevent counterfeit currency from entering circulation during the election season, safeguarding the financial system and public trust.
