India’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience and strong growth momentum despite global uncertainty and weak external demand, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October Bulletin released on Monday.
The RBI said indicators of capacity utilisation and domestic demand have shown improvement, while both manufacturing and services sectors continue to expand robustly. “The Indian economy displayed resilience amidst broader global uncertainty and weak external demand. High-frequency indicators point to a revival in urban demand and robust rural demand,” the bulletin stated.
Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation moderated sharply in September, marking its lowest level since June 2017, it added. Inflation remained well below the target rate, giving the monetary policy greater flexibility to sustain growth.
At the same time, the RBI noted that global uncertainty has edged up. The US experienced a rise in trade and economic policy uncertainty in September, while renewed US-China trade tensions and a prolonged government shutdown dampened investor sentiment in October. However, global growth has broadly remained stable.
Reflecting confidence in India’s economic fundamentals, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have both revised India’s growth projections upwards for 2025. The IMF increased its estimate by 20 basis points to 6.6 per cent, while the OECD raised its forecast by 40 basis points to 6.7 per cent, citing continued strength in domestic demand.
However, the IMF revised India’s 2026 growth forecast slightly downward, citing medium-term implications of steep US import tariffs.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the current macroeconomic conditions have provided monetary policymakers with more space to support growth without compromising the central bank’s primary mandate of price stability. “Despite an external environment that has deteriorated since the August policy, the Indian economy remains poised to register high growth. The sobering of inflation has given greater leeway for monetary policy to support growth,” he said.
Malhotra added that achieving the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047 will require coordinated action from fiscal, monetary, and regulatory fronts. “The recent rationalisation of GST rates by the government is a major step in this direction,” he said.
The RBI chief also reaffirmed the central bank’s data-driven approach, stating that the monetary authority will remain vigilant to evolving conditions and continue to focus on maintaining price stability while fostering sustainable growth. “We will be proactive, objective, and consistent in our communication while backing it up with credible actions,” Malhotra added.
The October Bulletin underscores that India’s macroeconomic resilience, supported by policy reforms and stable inflation, positions it favourably amid global volatility.
