The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a squally weather alert for the Andaman and Nicobar coast, warning of strong surface winds and rough sea conditions between November 3 and November 5. Fishermen and small vessel operators have been advised not to venture into the sea during this period as sea conditions are expected to remain unsafe for navigation and fishing activity.
According to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi, a low-pressure area that developed over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar coast has persisted over the same region as of early November 3. The system is associated with an upper-air cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level and is likely to move north-northwestwards along and off the Myanmar-Bangladesh coasts during the next 24 hours.
The IMD observed that satellite data indicates scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over the east-central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal, the Arakan coast, the north Andaman Sea, and the Gulf of Martaban. The minimum cloud-top temperature in these regions ranged from minus 70 to minus 90 degrees Celsius, suggesting strong convective activity and heavy moisture concentration.
Despite these developments, the IMD clarified that there is no likelihood of cyclogenesis — or formation of a depression or cyclone — over the Bay of Bengal during the next seven days. The probability of any such formation has been assessed as nil for all forecast intervals up to 168 hours. Meteorologists said that while the low-pressure area continues to persist, conditions are not favourable for it to intensify into a stronger system in the coming days.
The department further stated that strong surface winds reaching speeds of 35 to 45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, are very likely to prevail along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands’ coast. Sea conditions are expected to be rough to very rough, making it hazardous for fishing vessels and small boats. The IMD has therefore issued an advisory for fishermen not to venture into the sea between November 3 and November 5. Coastal authorities have been advised to ensure safety measures and to alert those already out at sea to return to shore at the earliest opportunity.
The current weather pattern has been attributed to the seasonal transition phase of the northeast monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. During this period, interactions between warm sea surfaces and upper-air wind circulations often generate convective clouds and squally conditions. Though the system shows no immediate signs of intensification, forecasters continue to monitor satellite and radar data for any changes in wind shear, pressure patterns, or sea-surface temperature that could influence its behaviour.
The IMD has reiterated that no significant cyclonic activity is expected over the North Indian Ocean basin, including both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, during the forecast period. However, residents and mariners in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands have been urged to stay alert and follow updates from official weather bulletins.
The weather is likely to gradually improve after November 5 if the low-pressure system weakens as predicted. Until then, rough sea conditions and gusty winds are expected to persist across parts of the island chain, and caution has been advised for all coastal and marine operations.
